Each week during the wildfire season, Dr. Mike Flannigan will share a five- to 10-day fire weather outlook for Canada. This is a first step in developing a national early warning system for wildfire in Canada. The fire weather outlook will be posted every Tuesday.
Mike Flannigan is the scientific director of the Institute for Wildfire Science, Adaptation, and Resiliency as well as the BC Innovation Research Chair in Predictive Services, Emergency Management and Fire Science at Thompson Rivers University.
View bioWeekly outlook | May 30– June 4, 2026 Issued May 26, 2026
All information provided below is reported at the time of publication and may not reflect more recent updates.
Current fire situation
The 2026 Fire Season is starting to kick into gear.
The number of fires in Canada is close to the 10-year average for this time of year, but area burned is well below normal (Table 1). If you are interested in trends for the number of fires and area burned in Canada, I highly recommend this publication by Chelene Hanes and others (2025, www.doi.org/10.1139/cjfr-2025-0209).
Most of the current fires are still in BC and AB, with most under control or being held. The first notable fire of the season was in Wood Buffalo National Park. We are seeing a smattering of fires across southern Canada.
Map showing location and status of fires in Canada as of May 26th.
ciffc.ca
Forecasted weather May 30 - June 4, 2026
An upper ridge has developed over central Canada and should persist through the forecast period and beyond (see animation - Figure 2). The hot weather and mostly dry conditions associated with this upper ridge will set the stage for a very active wildfire episode. Temperature anomalies (red areas) are 10°C - 15°C above normal (Figure 3). An upper low developing on the west side of the upper ridge will trigger thunderstorms and lightning that could lead to outbreaks of lightning-caused fires. Although rain will accompany the upper low, the forecasted Duff Moisture Code (DMC) is a good indicator of lightning-caused fire potential (see CWFIS static map viewer for forecasted DMC values). The higher the value, the drier the fuel, and the greater the likelihood of lightning-caused fires.
Temperature anomaly for Sunday, May 31st, 2026.
Models: ECMWF-AIFS — Pivotal Weather
Below is the Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC). The higher the FFMC, the drier the fine fuels and the easier it is for a fire to start. FFMC values in the lower 90s represent fine fuel moisture content of 10% or less, which is very conducive to fire ignition and spread. Figure 4 shows the FFMC for June 1st, and we see FFMC values in the 90s from Northwestern Ontario to Saskatchewan.
Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC) for June 1st, 2026.
CWFIS static map viewer
Fire weather outlook May 30- June 4, 2026
There is potential for a very active period of fire starts and active spread days during the forecast period. The central area of greatest fire activity is expected to span from Saskatchewan to Northwestern Ontario, with possible elevated fire activity stretching from the southern Northwest Territories to western Québec. Note that I say “potential” and “possible,” as there are three ingredients required for a wildfire. First is the vegetation - fire practitioners call it fuel. We have no lack of fuel across most of Canada, but fuel moisture is a critical element, and thus the attention given to the Fire Weather Index (FWI) System, the Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC), and the Duff Moisture Code (DMC). Second, conducive fire weather is needed, and this is addressed in the discussion above. Lastly, an ignition source, whether from lightning or human activity is required. I have seen situations like this in the past with conducive fire weather but no ignitions. We cannot stop the lightning, but we can reduce or eliminate human-caused fires. Most fires in spring are human-caused.
References
Hanes, C., Jain, P., Wang, W., Wang, X., Parisien, M-A., Little, J. and Flannigan, M. 2025. Trends in Canadian Wildfires: an update. Can. J. For. Res. https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfr-2025-0209
Questions?We have the answers
Questions, including media requests for Mike Flannigan, can be emailed to wildfire@tru.ca.
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