Each week during the wildfire season, Dr. Mike Flannigan will share a five- to 10-day fire weather outlook for Canada. This is a first step in developing a national early warning system for wildfire in Canada. The fire weather outlook will be posted every Tuesday.
Mike Flannigan is the scientific director of the Institute for Wildfire Science, Adaptation, and Resiliency as well as the BC Innovation Research Chair in Predictive Services, Emergency Management and Fire Science at Thompson Rivers University.
View bioWeekly outlook | June 6–11, 2026 Issued June 2, 2026
All information provided below is reported at the time of publication and may not reflect more recent updates.
Current fire situation
The upper ridge has arrived, and with it, the heat – and then the fires. Fire activity picked up, stretching from the southern Northwest Territories to Ontario (Figure 1). We saw the first pyrocumulonimbus of the season on May 28th on the Lobstick Fire in central Saskatchewan (Figure 2). A pyrocumulonimbus (also known as a pyroCb) is a fire-generated thunderstorm that cannot be suppressed through direct or indirect attack (Figure 3).
Last week, I recommended a publication by Chelene Hanes and others on the fire regime in Canada. Shortly after my outlook was issued, a research brief on that publication became available here. Check it out.
Our fire season has now started in earnest, with over 100 active fires from British Columbia to Ontario.
Figure 1. Map showing the location and status of fires in Canada as of June 2nd, 2026.
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Figure 2. GOES West GeoColor imagery from May 28th, 2026, showing a PyroCb in central Saskatchewan.
Figure 3. A schematic diagram illustrating a pyroCb.
Fire weather outlook June 4-11, 2026
The potential for an active period of fire activity shifts to the east during the outlook period. The 500 mb anomaly map for Monday, June 8th shows a large ridge centred over Ontario and Quebec (Figure 4). The 2m temperature anomaly map closely mirrors the 500 mb map, with above-normal temperatures over Ontario and Quebec (Figure 5). The precipitation map for most of the outlook period shows little to no precipitation over most of Ontario and Quebec, with the exception of the Great Lakes region (Figure 6). This region, characterized by little to no precipitation and above-normal temperatures, should be considered receptive to fire-starts. The good news is that there is no lightning forecast for this region, with the exception of northwestern Ontario. If we can prevent human-caused fires, we will be in good shape.
Figure 4. 500 mb anomaly map for Monday, June 8th, 2026. Red areas represent above-normal heights, indicating that the air mass is warmer than normal.
Figure 5. Temperature anomaly for Monday, June 8th, 2026.
Figure 6. Precipitation amounts forecast for the five-day period ending Thursday, June 11th, 2026.
Questions?We have the answers
Questions, including media requests for Mike Flannigan, can be emailed to wildfire@tru.ca.
Want to keep up with fire weather and fire activity? Check out @mikeflannigan.bsky.social.
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