Each week during the wildfire season, Dr. Mike Flannigan will share a five- to 10-day fire weather outlook for Canada. This is a first step in developing a national early warning system for wildfire in Canada. The fire weather outlook will be posted every Tuesday.
Mike Flannigan is the scientific director of the Institute for Wildfire Science, Adaptation, and Resiliency as well as the BC Innovation Research Chair in Predictive Services, Emergency Management and Fire Science at Thompson Rivers University.
View bioWeekly Outlook | June 20-25, 2026 Issued June 16, 2026
All information provided below is reported at the time of publication and may not reflect more recent updates.
Current fire situation - Mostly Quiet
Around 150,000 hectares1 have burned thus far this fire season, but this is well below the 10-year average of 960,000 ha for this time of year (CIFFC | Situation Report June 15, 2026). There are about 100 active fires from the Yukon and BC extending to northwestern Ontario – see Figure 1. There has been some active fire activity near Norman Wells, NWT over the past several days. Figure 2 shows a GOES-West GeoColor image with a visible smoke plume from that area. Despite this activity, it has been a quiet start to the fire season.
Figure 1. Location and status of fires across Canada as of June 15th, 2026.
Figure 2. GOES-West GeoColor imagery from June 14th, 2026, showing a large smoke plume from a fire near Norman Wells, NWT. Note that Great Bear Lake remains ice-covered. Pixel sizes are very large as these fires are near 65°N latitude and GOES is a geostationary satellite positioned above the equator that rotates at the same speed as the Earth.
Fire weather outlook June 20-25, 2026
The NWT, as well as much of BC (except northeastern BC), has the potential for some active fire during the outlook period. Otherwise, the outlook period appears relatively quiet, with cooler temperatures and rain forecast across large swaths of Canada. Figure 3 shows total precipitation over the five-day period ending June 25th. Lightning activity is increasing (Figure 4), but given the associated rainfall, widespread fire starts are not expected. There is also a possibility of holdover fires – fires in which lightning ignites a smouldering fire at the base of a tree that can persist for days or weeks before flaring up when conditions become favourable.
Figure 3. Precipitation amounts forecast for June 21st-25th, 2026.
Figure 4. 12-hour lightning density forecast for June 23rd, 2026.
A Look Ahead
Long-range forecasts (10-15 days) suggest a large upper ridge may be building over western Canada. It is too early to be confident in this signal, but it is worth monitoring.
The updated C3S forecast for July and for the July–September period was released last week. These forecasts are drawn from an ensemble of models and generally provide the best forecast. (For those interested in ensemble fire weather forecasting, see Chen et al - 2025. The forecast suggests a hot July for much of Canada (Figure 5), with normal to below-normal precipitation (Figure 6), a recipe for an active fire season unless ignitions can be avoided.
Figure 5. C3S temperature forecast for July 2026.
Figure 6. C3S precipitation forecast for July 2026.
1Hectare – unit of area equal to 100m x 100m (roughly the size of a soccer pitch); 100 ha =1km² and 1 ha=2.47 acres.
Questions?We have the answers
Questions, including media requests for Mike Flannigan, can be emailed to wildfire@tru.ca.
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