Preparing for post-peak oil: Breaking our crude addiction

By Ian Cowie

“Post-Peak oil” has arrived.

Crude oil production peaked in 2006, says the latest annual report from the International Energy Agency.Factor in exponential population growth, global warming, and a looming worldwide recession, and new and old addicts alike are preparing for some serious withdrawal.

“Peak oil” is defined as the point in time when global oil production reaches a maximum and then begins to decline. This decline means many things to many people, but to UBC professor William Rees it means: “Plan well or suffer the consequences.”

Rees, who teaches in the school of community and regional planning, suggests we need a 70 to 80 per cent reduction in material and energy production (throughput), to attain a sustainable economy.

“We have the technological capacity to make such reductions without much change in lifestyles,” Rees said. Rees is best known for co-creating the “ecological footprint analysis,” a quantitative tool for estimating human impact on surrounding ecosystems.

“Sustainability is a collective problem that people have to work together to solve. Unless there is sufficient public demand, governments won’t have the political will to implement policies for the common good,” said Rees. Instead they will follow the “business as usual” agenda of corporate leaders.

“Ordinary people” said Rees, “must make their voices heard loud and clear, so that governments know it is in their common good”.

As the occupy movement spreads around the world, it would seem Rees’s words have been heard. The movement appears determined to bring reform to energy, environmental and economic policies.

People like Richard Balfour are calling for a “re-localization” of the economy.

“Re-localization,” said Balfour, “involves being self-sufficient on the local level, through community-led resource allocation. Current world leaders just reinforce the concept of bigness.”

Balfour is an architect and strategic planner, director of the Metro Vancouver Planning Coalition and co-author of a “Civil Defense Manual,” a document that prepares people in Vancouver and the Lower Mainland for life after peak oil.  Balfour is also a member of the Vancouver Peak Oil Executive, a group of citizens that raises awareness about oil depletion.

“Top planners are not even addressing the key issues of global warming or a potential energy crisis,” said Balfour.

The foundation of current world economic policy stems from the belief that there is no limit to economic growth. The problem with that was expressed well by economist E. F. Schumacher: “Infinite growth of material consumption in a finite world is an impossibility.”

One of the biggest challenges facing a post-peak oil world is exponential population growth. China alone will add 350 million people to urban centers by 2025, as estimated by McKinsey Global Institute. Demand for oil increased in China from 6.92 million barrels a day in 2008 to 8.05 million barrels a day in 2009, according to the Joint Oil Data Initiative.

There have been several attempts worldwide to build sustainable cities. An 'ecocity', as declared by the World Ecocity Summit 2008 in San Francisco, “is an ecologically healthy city."

" Into the deep future, the cities in which we live must enable people to thrive in harmony with nature and achieve sustainable development. People oriented, ecocity development requires the comprehensive understanding of complex interactions between environmental, economic, political and socio-cultural factors based on ecological principles. Cities, towns and villages should be designed to enhance the health and quality of life of their inhabitants and maintain the ecosystems on which they depend.”

Six “ecocities” are scheduled to be built by 2020, including: New Songdo City in South Korea, Tianjin Eco-City in China, Nanjing in Singapore, PlanIT Valley in Portugal, Sitra Low2No in Finland, and Meixi Lake District in China. These attempts to build sustainable cities may be a step in the right direction but the viability to finance them still remains unproven.

Many people are tackling the problem of peak oil head-on. “MrEnergyCzar,” created a YouTube video called “Preparing for Peak Oil,” showing practical solutions to reduce the risks associated with post-peak oil and global warming.

“I heard about ‘peak oil’ from a co-worker when I was foolishly talking about hydrogen cars replacing regular ones,” MrEnergyStar, who would otherwise only identify himself as Peter, said in an e-mail interview. That was in 2007. He decided to research “peak oil,” and after devouring 40 books on the subject embarked on his own 10-year plan to reduce any potential risks that could arise from the end of cheap oil.  

“I accepted that there was a peak in cheap oil at around 2006 and that economies will not be able to grow like they have been anymore. I became interested in it because I couldn't look at the world without connecting oil behind everything you see, touch or do.” Now Peter lives in a net-zero electrically powered home and grows most of his own vegetables.

“Ironically, I did what goes against our energy culture, I live extremely well while using a lot less energy.” Peter believes making sacrifices to save money in the long-term is one way to prepare, but suggests being debt-free is probably the best apprioach. With a global debt of over 40 trillion dollars, one might find it hard not to heed Peter’s advice.

Many challenges face the post-peak oil world. Global warming, a rapidly growing population and worldwide economic recessions are all on the radar. Rees remains optimistic though.

“Let us rise to these challenges," said Rees. "Humans have unique qualities. We have capacity for high intelligence, logical analysis and behavior, forward planning, and the ability to make moral judgments. If we take scientific theory seriously, we would plan ahead”.